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New York Mets vs New York Yankees — 2026-09-11

7:05 PM ETYankee StadiumSP: Nolan McLean vs Carlos RodónMLB

Model prediction

New York Mets
37%
New York Yankees
63%
Projected
Mets 4.3 - 4.6 Yankees

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates New York Yankees as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 65-point Elo gap (1502 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

New York Mets
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New York Yankees
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