Cincinnati Reds beat New York Mets 5-3, a 2-runs margin. We projected New York Mets 4.3-4.6 Cincinnati Reds and gave Cincinnati Reds a 65% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 65%. The driver is a 82-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Mets 35% / Cincinnati Reds 65%. Projected New York Mets 4.3 — 4.6 Cincinnati Reds.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 65%. The driver is a 82-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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