New York Mets won 3-2 over Tampa Bay Rays on 2026-08-31. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 1 run.
Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 67%. The driver is a 100-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Mets 33% / Tampa Bay Rays 67%. Projected New York Mets 4.3 — 4.6 Tampa Bay Rays.
Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 67%. The driver is a 100-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Tampa Bay Rays ML at -168 at -168. Pre-game: model 66.6% vs market 61.8% implied, a +4.9pp edge.
What happened: New York Mets 3 @ Tampa Bay Rays 2.
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
Pre-game call: Over 8.0 at -110 at -110. Pre-game: model 56.5% vs market 50.0% implied, a +6.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 5 (line: over 8).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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