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New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-08-07

6:40 PM ETPNC ParkSP: Zac Thornton vs Carmen MlodzinskiMLBFINAL
Recap

New York Mets won 6-4 over Pittsburgh Pirates on 2026-08-07. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 2 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

New York Mets
31%
Pittsburgh Pirates
69%
Projected
Mets 4.3 - 4.6 Pirates

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 69%. The driver is a 113-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

New York Mets
No recent games on file.
Pittsburgh Pirates
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: New York Mets 31% / Pittsburgh Pirates 69%. Projected New York Mets 4.3 — 4.6 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 69%. The driver is a 113-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -124 at -124. Pre-game: model 58.6% vs market 52.8% implied, a +5.8pp edge.

What happened: Total: 10 (line: under 8.5).

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

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