Philadelphia Phillies beat New York Mets 6-1, a 5-runs margin. We projected New York Mets 4.4-4.5 Philadelphia Phillies and gave Philadelphia Phillies a 55% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.
Our MLB model rates Philadelphia Phillies as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 13-point Elo gap (1450 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Mets 45% / Philadelphia Phillies 55%. Projected New York Mets 4.4 — 4.5 Philadelphia Phillies.
Our MLB model rates Philadelphia Phillies as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 13-point Elo gap (1450 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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