Seattle Mariners beat New York Mets 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected New York Mets 4.4-4.5 Seattle Mariners and gave Seattle Mariners a 61% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.
Our MLB model rates Seattle Mariners as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 54-point Elo gap (1491 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Mets 39% / Seattle Mariners 61%. Projected New York Mets 4.4 — 4.5 Seattle Mariners.
Our MLB model rates Seattle Mariners as the more likely winner at 61%. The driver is a 54-point Elo gap (1491 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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