HomeMLB › New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers — 2026-07-21

7:40 PM ETAmerican Family FieldSP: Zac Thornton vs Brandon SproatMLBFINAL
Recap

New York Mets beat Milwaukee Brewers 4-0, a 4-runs margin. We projected New York Mets 4.4-4.5 Milwaukee Brewers and gave Milwaukee Brewers a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

New York Mets
41%
Milwaukee Brewers
59%
Projected
Mets 4.4 - 4.5 Brewers

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 40-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

New York Mets
No recent games on file.
Milwaukee Brewers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: New York Mets 41% / Milwaukee Brewers 59%. Projected New York Mets 4.4 — 4.5 Milwaukee Brewers.

Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 40-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 59.7% vs market 52.2% implied, a +7.5pp edge.

What happened: Total: 4 (line: under 9).

Bet returned +1.25u on 1.5u risked.

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