New York Mets beat Milwaukee Brewers 4-0, a 4-runs margin. We projected New York Mets 4.4-4.5 Milwaukee Brewers and gave Milwaukee Brewers a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 40-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Mets 41% / Milwaukee Brewers 59%. Projected New York Mets 4.4 — 4.5 Milwaukee Brewers.
Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 40-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 59.7% vs market 52.2% implied, a +7.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 4 (line: under 9).
Bet returned +1.25u on 1.5u risked.
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