Atlanta Braves beat New York Mets 5-3, a 2-runs margin. We projected New York Mets 4.2-4.7 Atlanta Braves and gave Atlanta Braves a 70% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 70%. The driver is a 119-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Mets 30% / Atlanta Braves 70%. Projected New York Mets 4.2 — 4.7 Atlanta Braves.
Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 70%. The driver is a 119-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 54.3% vs market 48.9% implied, a +5.4pp edge.
What happened: Total: 8 (line: under 9).
Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.
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