Toronto Blue Jays beat New York Mets 9-3, a 6-runs margin. We projected New York Mets 4.4-4.5 Toronto Blue Jays and gave Toronto Blue Jays a 56% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Mets 44% / Toronto Blue Jays 56%. Projected New York Mets 4.4 — 4.5 Toronto Blue Jays.
Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Toronto Blue Jays ML at -108 at -108. Pre-game: model 57.5% vs market 50.0% implied, a +7.5pp edge.
What happened: New York Mets 3 @ Toronto Blue Jays 9.
Bet returned +1.39u on 1.5u risked.
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