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New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays — 2026-06-29

7:07 PM ETRogers CentreSP: Sean Manaea vs Trey YesavageMLB

Model prediction

New York Mets
44%
Toronto Blue Jays
56%
Projected
Mets 4.4 - 4.5 Jays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

New York Mets
No recent games on file.
Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 9 at -119 at -119. Pre-game: model 58.0% vs market 51.9% implied, a +6.0pp edge.

What happened: Total: 3 (line: under 9).

Bet returned +1.26u on 1.5u risked.

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