Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 37-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Colorado Rockies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 11.5 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 58.6% vs market 51.3% implied, a +7.3pp edge.
What happened: Total: 17 (line: over 11.5).
Bet returned +1.30u on 1.5u risked.
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