Home › MLB › Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — 2026-08-16

1:40 PM ETGreat American Ball ParkSP: Eury Pérez vs Nick LodoloMLBFINAL
Recap

Miami Marlins won 7-1 over Cincinnati Reds on 2026-08-16. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 6 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Miami Marlins
43%
Cincinnati Reds
57%
Projected
Marlins 4.4 - 4.5 Reds

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 27-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.
Cincinnati Reds
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 43% / Cincinnati Reds 57%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.4 — 4.5 Cincinnati Reds.

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 27-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 57.6% vs market 51.7% implied, a +5.9pp edge.

What happened: Total: 8 (line: over 8.5).

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.