Miami Marlins beat Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2, a 2-runs margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.3-4.6 Pittsburgh Pirates and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 62% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 38% / Pittsburgh Pirates 62%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.3 — 4.6 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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