Pittsburgh Pirates beat Miami Marlins 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.3-4.6 Pittsburgh Pirates and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 62% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 38% / Pittsburgh Pirates 62%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.3 — 4.6 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Miami Marlins ML at +112 at +112. Pre-game: model 52.5% vs market 45.3% implied, a +7.2pp edge.
What happened: Miami Marlins 2 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 3.
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.