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Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — 2026-09-20

4:10 PM ETPetco ParkSP: Sandy Alcantara vs Walker BuehlerMLBFINAL
Recap

San Diego Padres won 7-3 over Miami Marlins on 2026-09-20. Margin of 4 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Miami Marlins
35%
San Diego Padres
65%
Projected
Marlins 4.3 - 4.6 Padres

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 65%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.
San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 35% / San Diego Padres 65%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.3 — 4.6 San Diego Padres.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 65%. The driver is a 84-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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