Miami Marlins beat Washington Nationals 4-1, a 3-runs margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.5-4.4 Washington Nationals and gave Washington Nationals a 51% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -19-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 49% / Washington Nationals 51%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.5 — 4.4 Washington Nationals.
Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -19-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -122 at -122. Pre-game: model 58.0% vs market 52.4% implied, a +5.6pp edge.
What happened: Total: 5 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned +1.23u on 1.5u risked.
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