New York Mets beat Miami Marlins 10-1, a 9-runs margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.5-4.4 New York Mets and gave Miami Marlins a 55% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 55% / New York Mets 45%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.5 — 4.4 New York Mets.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 7.5 at +102 at +102. Pre-game: model 53.8% vs market 48.6% implied, a +5.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 11 (line: under 7.5).
Bet returned -2.00u on 2u risked.
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