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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — 2026-05-30

4:10 PM ETCiti FieldSP: Tyler Phillips vs Christian ScottMLBFINAL
Recap

New York Mets beat Miami Marlins 6-1, a 5-runs margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.5-4.4 New York Mets and gave Miami Marlins a 55% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Miami Marlins
55%
New York Mets
45%
Projected
Marlins 4.5 - 4.4 Mets
Edge vs market on Miami Marlins: +6.7%. Model basis: MLB totals 3-way blend (our + external + market).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.7% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.
New York Mets
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 55% / New York Mets 45%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.5 — 4.4 New York Mets.

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 55-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.7% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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