St. Louis Cardinals beat Miami Marlins 2-1, a 1-run margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.5-4.4 St. Louis Cardinals and gave St. Louis Cardinals a 53% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a -3-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 47% / St. Louis Cardinals 53%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.5 — 4.4 St. Louis Cardinals.
Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a -3-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Miami Marlins ML at +114 at +114. Pre-game: model 52.6% vs market 45.0% implied, a +7.6pp edge.
What happened: Miami Marlins 1 @ St. Louis Cardinals 2.
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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