Milwaukee Brewers beat Miami Marlins 8-6, a 2-runs margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.5-4.4 Milwaukee Brewers and gave Milwaukee Brewers a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -16-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 49% / Milwaukee Brewers 51%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.5 — 4.4 Milwaukee Brewers.
Our MLB model rates Milwaukee Brewers as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -16-point Elo gap (1476 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -108 at -108. Pre-game: model 55.3% vs market 49.7% implied, a +5.6pp edge.
What happened: Total: 14 (line: under 8).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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