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Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros — 2026-07-22

8:10 PM ETDaikin ParkSP: Sandy Alcantara vs Peter LambertMLB

Model prediction

Miami Marlins
51%
Houston Astros
49%
Projected
Marlins 4.5 - 4.4 Astros

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.
Houston Astros
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 54.2% vs market 49.0% implied, a +5.2pp edge.

What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 8).

Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.

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