Houston Astros beat Miami Marlins 8-5, a 3-runs margin. We projected Miami Marlins 4.5-4.4 Houston Astros and gave Miami Marlins a 51% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Miami Marlins 51% / Houston Astros 49%. Projected Miami Marlins 4.5 — 4.4 Houston Astros.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 57.2% vs market 52.2% implied, a +5.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 8 (line: over 9).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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