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Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros — 2026-07-21

8:10 PM ETDaikin ParkSP: Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya ImaiMLB

Model prediction

Miami Marlins
51%
Houston Astros
49%
Projected
Marlins 4.5 - 4.4 Astros

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.
Houston Astros
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 57.2% vs market 52.2% implied, a +5.0pp edge.

What happened: Total: 8 (line: over 9).

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

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