Detroit Tigers beat Seattle Mariners 5-4, a 1-run margin. We projected Seattle Mariners 4.4-4.5 Detroit Tigers and gave Detroit Tigers a 55% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 10-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1491) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Seattle Mariners would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Seattle Mariners 45% / Detroit Tigers 55%. Projected Seattle Mariners 4.4 — 4.5 Detroit Tigers.
Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 10-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1491) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Seattle Mariners would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 57.3% vs market 51.9% implied, a +5.4pp edge.
What happened: Total: 9 (line: over 8.5).
Bet returned +1.25u on 1.5u risked.
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