HomeMLB › Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — 2026-07-11

4:10 PM ETTropicana FieldSP: Logan Gilbert vs Griffin JaxMLB

Model prediction

Seattle Mariners
40%
Tampa Bay Rays
60%
Projected
Mariners 4.4 - 4.5 Rays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 46-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1491) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Seattle Mariners would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Seattle Mariners
No recent games on file.
Tampa Bay Rays
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 7.0 at -108 at -108. Pre-game: model 54.9% vs market 49.6% implied, a +5.4pp edge.

What happened: Total: 7 PUSH (line: under 7).

Bet returned +0.00u.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.

Dashboard