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Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins — 2026-07-09

1:40 PM ETTarget FieldSP: Gavin Williams vs Bailey OberMLBFINAL
Recap

Cleveland Guardians beat Minnesota Twins 5-2, a 3-runs margin. We projected Cleveland Guardians 4.4-4.5 Minnesota Twins and gave Minnesota Twins a 58% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Cleveland Guardians
42%
Minnesota Twins
58%
Projected
Guardians 4.4 - 4.5 Twins

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Minnesota Twins as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 30-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1503) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cleveland Guardians would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Cleveland Guardians
No recent games on file.
Minnesota Twins
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Cleveland Guardians 42% / Minnesota Twins 58%. Projected Cleveland Guardians 4.4 — 4.5 Minnesota Twins.

Our MLB model rates Minnesota Twins as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 30-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1503) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cleveland Guardians would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Minnesota Twins ML at +110 at +110. Pre-game: model 51.1% vs market 45.7% implied, a +5.3pp edge.

What happened: Cleveland Guardians 5 @ Minnesota Twins 2.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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