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Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins — 2026-07-12

1:40 PM ETloanDepot parkSP: Joey Cantillo vs Tyler PhillipsMLBFINAL
Recap

Cleveland Guardians beat Miami Marlins 5-2, a 3-runs margin. We projected Cleveland Guardians 4.5-4.4 Miami Marlins and gave Miami Marlins a 52% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Cleveland Guardians
48%
Miami Marlins
52%
Projected
Guardians 4.5 - 4.4 Marlins

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -11-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1503) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cleveland Guardians would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Cleveland Guardians
No recent games on file.
Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Cleveland Guardians 48% / Miami Marlins 52%. Projected Cleveland Guardians 4.5 — 4.4 Miami Marlins.

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -11-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1503) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cleveland Guardians would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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