Colorado Rockies beat San Francisco Giants 8-6, a 2-runs margin. We projected San Francisco Giants 4.4-4.5 Colorado Rockies and gave Colorado Rockies a 55% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick pushed.
Our MLB model rates Colorado Rockies as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 9-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.0% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: San Francisco Giants 45% / Colorado Rockies 55%. Projected San Francisco Giants 4.4 — 4.5 Colorado Rockies.
Our MLB model rates Colorado Rockies as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 9-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.0% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 11.0 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 54.9% vs market 48.9% implied, a +6.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 11 PUSH (line: over 11).
Bet returned +0.00u.
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