HomeMLB › San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — 2026-09-04

7:10 PM ETCiti FieldSP: Matt Wilkinson vs Nolan McLeanMLB

Model prediction

San Francisco Giants
48%
New York Mets
52%
Projected
Giants 4.5 - 4.4 Mets

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates New York Mets as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -9-point Elo gap (1437 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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