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San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins — 2026-06-20

4:10 PM ETloanDepot parkSP: Trevor McDonald vs Max MeyerMLBFINAL
Recap

Miami Marlins beat San Francisco Giants 6-3, a 3-runs margin. We projected San Francisco Giants 4.4-4.5 Miami Marlins and gave Miami Marlins a 60% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Francisco Giants
40%
Miami Marlins
60%
Projected
Giants 4.4 - 4.5 Marlins

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 46-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Francisco Giants
No recent games on file.
Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Francisco Giants 40% / Miami Marlins 60%. Projected San Francisco Giants 4.4 — 4.5 Miami Marlins.

Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 46-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 57.5% vs market 51.1% implied, a +6.4pp edge.

What happened: Total: 9 (line: under 8).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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