Miami Marlins beat San Francisco Giants 4-3, a 1-run margin. We projected San Francisco Giants 4.4-4.5 Miami Marlins and gave Miami Marlins a 60% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 46-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: San Francisco Giants 40% / Miami Marlins 60%. Projected San Francisco Giants 4.4 — 4.5 Miami Marlins.
Our MLB model rates Miami Marlins as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 46-point Elo gap (1492 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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