Los Angeles Dodgers beat New York Mets 4-3, a 1-run margin. We projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.7-4.2 New York Mets and gave Los Angeles Dodgers a 67% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 67%. The driver is a 147-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.3% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Los Angeles Dodgers 67% / New York Mets 33%. Projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.7 — 4.2 New York Mets.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 67%. The driver is a 147-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -119 at -119. Pre-game: model 57.1% vs market 51.8% implied, a +5.3pp edge.
What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 8).
Bet returned +1.26u on 1.5u risked.
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