HomeMLB › Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — 2026-07-25

7:15 PM ETCiti FieldSP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLeanMLBFINAL
Recap

Los Angeles Dodgers beat New York Mets 4-3, a 1-run margin. We projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.7-4.2 New York Mets and gave Los Angeles Dodgers a 67% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Los Angeles Dodgers
67%
New York Mets
33%
Projected
Dodgers 4.7 - 4.2 Mets
Edge vs market on Los Angeles Dodgers: +5.3%. Model basis: MLB totals 3-way blend (our + external + market).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 67%. The driver is a 147-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.3% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Los Angeles Dodgers
No recent games on file.
New York Mets
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Los Angeles Dodgers 67% / New York Mets 33%. Projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.7 — 4.2 New York Mets.

Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 67%. The driver is a 147-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -119 at -119. Pre-game: model 57.1% vs market 51.8% implied, a +5.3pp edge.

What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 8).

Bet returned +1.26u on 1.5u risked.

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