Los Angeles Dodgers beat Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5, a 1-run margin. We projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5-4.4 Arizona Diamondbacks and gave Los Angeles Dodgers a 52% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 39-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Los Angeles Dodgers 52% / Arizona Diamondbacks 48%. Projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5 — 4.4 Arizona Diamondbacks.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 39-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -110 at -110. Pre-game: model 56.5% vs market 50.0% implied, a +6.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 9).
Bet returned +0.91u on 1u risked.
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