Los Angeles Dodgers beat Athletics 9-4, a 5-runs margin. We projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5-4.4 Athletics and gave Los Angeles Dodgers a 54% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 50-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1533) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Athletics would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Los Angeles Dodgers 54% / Athletics 46%. Projected Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5 — 4.4 Athletics.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Dodgers as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 50-point Elo gap (1583 vs 1533) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Athletics would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 11 at -119 at -119. Pre-game: model 57.3% vs market 51.8% implied, a +5.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 12 (line: under 11).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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