Tampa Bay Rays beat Arizona Diamondbacks 4-2, a 2-runs margin. We projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5-4.4 Tampa Bay Rays and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 52% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -8-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Arizona Diamondbacks 48% / Tampa Bay Rays 52%. Projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5 — 4.4 Tampa Bay Rays.
Our MLB model rates Tampa Bay Rays as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -8-point Elo gap (1537 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 58.3% vs market 51.5% implied, a +6.8pp edge.
What happened: Total: 6 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned +1.27u on 1.5u risked.
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