Arizona Diamondbacks won 8-7 over Pittsburgh Pirates on 2026-07-28. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 1 run.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 5-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Arizona Diamondbacks 46% / Pittsburgh Pirates 54%. Projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4 — 4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 5-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 53.4% vs market 48.2% implied, a +5.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 15 (line: under 9).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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