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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-07-27

6:40 PM ETPNC ParkSP: Merrill Kelly vs Mitch KellerMLB

Model prediction

Arizona Diamondbacks
46%
Pittsburgh Pirates
54%
Projected
Diamondbacks 4.4 - 4.5 Pirates

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 5-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Arizona Diamondbacks
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Pittsburgh Pirates
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