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Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — 2026-07-08

10:10 PM ETPetco ParkSP: Jose Cabrera vs Michael KingMLBFINAL
Recap

San Diego Padres beat Arizona Diamondbacks 4-1, a 3-runs margin. We projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4-4.5 San Diego Padres and gave San Diego Padres a 58% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Arizona Diamondbacks
42%
San Diego Padres
58%
Projected
Diamondbacks 4.4 - 4.5 Padres

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 32-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Arizona Diamondbacks
No recent games on file.
San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Arizona Diamondbacks 42% / San Diego Padres 58%. Projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4 — 4.5 San Diego Padres.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 32-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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