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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals — 2026-07-24

6:45 PM ETNationals ParkSP: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Carson PalmquistMLBFINAL
Recap

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Washington Nationals 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6-4.3 Washington Nationals and gave Arizona Diamondbacks a 57% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Arizona Diamondbacks
57%
Washington Nationals
43%
Projected
Diamondbacks 4.6 - 4.3 Nationals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 71-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Arizona Diamondbacks
No recent games on file.
Washington Nationals
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What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Arizona Diamondbacks 57% / Washington Nationals 43%. Projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 — 4.3 Washington Nationals.

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 71-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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