Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 52-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Miami Marlins ML at -116 at -116. Pre-game: model 59.4% vs market 51.8% implied, a +7.6pp edge.
What happened: Arizona Diamondbacks 0 @ Miami Marlins 2.
Bet returned +0.86u on 1u risked.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -101 at -101. Pre-game: model 54.6% vs market 48.1% implied, a +6.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 2 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned +0.99u on 1u risked.
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