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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins — 2026-06-11

1:10 PM ETloanDepot parkSP: Merrill Kelly vs Tyler PhillipsMLB

Model prediction

Arizona Diamondbacks
54%
Miami Marlins
46%
Projected
Diamondbacks 4.5 - 4.4 Marlins

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 52-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Arizona Diamondbacks
No recent games on file.
Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Miami Marlins ML at -116 at -116. Pre-game: model 59.4% vs market 51.8% implied, a +7.6pp edge.

What happened: Arizona Diamondbacks 0 @ Miami Marlins 2.

Bet returned +0.86u on 1u risked.

Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -101 at -101. Pre-game: model 54.6% vs market 48.1% implied, a +6.5pp edge.

What happened: Total: 2 (line: under 8.5).

Bet returned +0.99u on 1u risked.

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