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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins — 2026-06-09

6:40 PM ETloanDepot parkSP: Zac Gallen vs Max MeyerMLBFINAL
Recap

Miami Marlins beat Arizona Diamondbacks 10-6, a 4-runs margin. We projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5-4.4 Miami Marlins and gave Arizona Diamondbacks a 54% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Arizona Diamondbacks
54%
Miami Marlins
46%
Projected
Diamondbacks 4.5 - 4.4 Marlins

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 52-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Arizona Diamondbacks
No recent games on file.
Miami Marlins
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Arizona Diamondbacks 54% / Miami Marlins 46%. Projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.5 — 4.4 Miami Marlins.

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 52-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1492) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Marlins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Miami Marlins ML at -130 at -130. Pre-game: model 60.4% vs market 54.3% implied, a +6.2pp edge.

What happened: Arizona Diamondbacks 6 @ Miami Marlins 10.

Bet returned +0.77u on 1u risked.

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