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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves — 2026-08-16

1:35 PM ETTruist ParkSP: Michael Soroka vs Bryce ElderMLBFINAL
Recap

Atlanta Braves won 5-3 over Arizona Diamondbacks on 2026-08-16. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 2 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Arizona Diamondbacks
45%
Atlanta Braves
55%
Projected
Diamondbacks 4.4 - 4.5 Braves

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 12-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Arizona Diamondbacks
No recent games on file.
Atlanta Braves
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Arizona Diamondbacks 45% / Atlanta Braves 55%. Projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4 — 4.5 Atlanta Braves.

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 12-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1544) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Arizona Diamondbacks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Arizona Diamondbacks ML at +115 at +115. Pre-game: model 51.1% vs market 46.0% implied, a +5.1pp edge.

What happened: Arizona Diamondbacks 3 @ Atlanta Braves 5.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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