Houston Astros won 3-1 over Arizona Diamondbacks on 2026-09-04. Margin of 2 runs.
Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 80-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Arizona Diamondbacks 58% / Houston Astros 42%. Projected Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 — 4.3 Houston Astros.
Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 80-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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