HomeMLB › Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-07-25

6:40 PM ETPNC ParkSP: Shota Imanaga vs Paul SkenesMLBFINAL
Recap

Chicago Cubs beat Pittsburgh Pirates 11-0, a 11-runs margin. We projected Chicago Cubs 4.4-4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 56% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Chicago Cubs
44%
Pittsburgh Pirates
56%
Projected
Cubs 4.4 - 4.5 Pirates
Edge vs market on Pittsburgh Pirates: +5.1%. Model basis: MLB totals 3-way blend (our + external + market).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1534) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Cubs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.1% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Chicago Cubs
No recent games on file.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Chicago Cubs 44% / Pittsburgh Pirates 56%. Projected Chicago Cubs 4.4 — 4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1534) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Cubs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 7.5 at -119 at -119. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 51.8% implied, a +5.1pp edge.

What happened: Total: 11 (line: over 7.5).

Bet returned +0.84u on 1u risked.

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