Chicago Cubs beat Pittsburgh Pirates 11-0, a 11-runs margin. We projected Chicago Cubs 4.4-4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 56% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1534) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Cubs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.1% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Chicago Cubs 44% / Pittsburgh Pirates 56%. Projected Chicago Cubs 4.4 — 4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1534) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Cubs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 7.5 at -119 at -119. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 51.8% implied, a +5.1pp edge.
What happened: Total: 11 (line: over 7.5).
Bet returned +0.84u on 1u risked.
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