HomeMLB › Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-07-24

6:40 PM ETPNC ParkSP: Matthew Boyd vs Jared JonesMLBFINAL
Recap

Chicago Cubs beat Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected Chicago Cubs 4.4-4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 56% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Chicago Cubs
44%
Pittsburgh Pirates
56%
Projected
Cubs 4.4 - 4.5 Pirates

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1534) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Cubs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Chicago Cubs
No recent games on file.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Chicago Cubs 44% / Pittsburgh Pirates 56%. Projected Chicago Cubs 4.4 — 4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 16-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1534) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Cubs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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