Chicago Cubs beat San Francisco Giants 5-1, a 4-runs margin. We projected Chicago Cubs 4.6-4.3 San Francisco Giants and gave Chicago Cubs a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 88-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Chicago Cubs 59% / San Francisco Giants 41%. Projected Chicago Cubs 4.6 — 4.3 San Francisco Giants.
Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 88-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1446) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco Giants would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 7.5 at +102 at +102. Pre-game: model 52.4% vs market 47.3% implied, a +5.1pp edge.
What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 7.5).
Bet returned +1.02u on 1u risked.
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