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Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — 2026-05-30

7:15 PM ETBusch StadiumSP: Ben Brown vs Kyle LeahyMLB

Model prediction

Chicago Cubs

53%

St. Louis Cardinals

47%

Projected

Cubs 4.5 - 4.4 Cardinals

Edge vs market on Chicago Cubs: +5.1%. Model basis: MLB Elo + xERA model (xERA).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 5.1% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Chicago Cubs

No recent games on file.

St. Louis Cardinals

No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Chicago Cubs ML at -139 at -139. Pre-game: model 61.1% vs market 56.0% implied, a +5.1pp edge.

What happened: Chicago Cubs 6 @ St. Louis Cardinals 1.

Bet returned +0.72u on 1u risked.

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