St. Louis Cardinals beat Kansas City Royals 12-10, a 2-runs margin. We projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.5-4.4 Kansas City Royals and gave St. Louis Cardinals a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 34-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: St. Louis Cardinals 51% / Kansas City Royals 49%. Projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.5 — 4.4 Kansas City Royals.
Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 34-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 56.7% vs market 51.5% implied, a +5.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 22 (line: under 9).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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