Cincinnati Reds won 5-4 over St. Louis Cardinals on 2026-08-19. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 1 run.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 30-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: St. Louis Cardinals 42% / Cincinnati Reds 58%. Projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.4 — 4.5 Cincinnati Reds.
Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 30-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 54.1% vs market 49.0% implied, a +5.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 9 (line: over 8.5).
Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.
Pre-game call: Cincinnati Reds ML at -128 at -128. Pre-game: model 59.9% vs market 55.9% implied, a +3.9pp edge.
What happened: St. Louis Cardinals 4 @ Cincinnati Reds 5.
Bet returned +1.17u on 1.5u risked.
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