Home › MLB › St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies — 2026-08-23

1:35 PM ETCitizens Bank ParkSP: Kyle Leahy vs Cristopher SánchezMLBFINAL
Recap

Philadelphia Phillies won 6-4 over St. Louis Cardinals on 2026-08-23. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 2 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

St. Louis Cardinals
52%
Philadelphia Phillies
48%
Projected
Cardinals 4.5 - 4.4 Phillies

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 39-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

St. Louis Cardinals
No recent games on file.
Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: St. Louis Cardinals 52% / Philadelphia Phillies 48%. Projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.5 — 4.4 Philadelphia Phillies.

Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 39-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -103 at -103. Pre-game: model 54.8% vs market 49.0% implied, a +5.8pp edge.

What happened: Total: 10 (line: under 8).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.