St. Louis Cardinals won 11-4 over Chicago Cubs on 2026-08-16. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 7 runs.
Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: St. Louis Cardinals 40% / Chicago Cubs 60%. Projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.4 — 4.5 Chicago Cubs.
Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at -123 at -123. Pre-game: model 58.2% vs market 52.7% implied, a +5.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 15 (line: over 8.5).
Bet returned +1.22u on 1.5u risked.
Pre-game call: St. Louis Cardinals ML at +163 at +163. Pre-game: model 42.9% vs market 37.5% implied, a +5.4pp edge.
What happened: St. Louis Cardinals 11 @ Chicago Cubs 4.
Bet returned +1.63u on 1u risked.
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